Its been 8 days since the Hamas began launching streams of rocket toward Israel and the outcome and how the warring parties will see the result is not clear yet, but there are lessons that are beginning to appear.
The myth of Arab unity has never been more obvious. It would seem that with riots spreading over Israel and Hamas firing over 3000 rockets , terrifying many Israeli citizens, and absorbing severe punishment doing so, that Arab masses would push the regimes into becoming involved. But they have not, other than pro forma usual protests, and gibberish in the media. But even Hezbollah, also allies (and stooges) of the Iranians, have stayed out of it. Even The West bank Palestinian leaders have limited their support of the Gazan Hamas attacks. What factors drive this reticence on the part of the other Arab nations? There are religious and political factors involved.
Hamas is an organization affiliated with the Muslim brotherhood, A radical Islamist organization with followers throughout the Islamic world. To be more specific they are Sunni and have deep seated antipathy toward the Shia. The population of Gaza is totally Sunni Arab and a small Shi’a organization was eradicated sometime ago by the security apparatus of Gaza . Hamas support by Iran is an an anomaly based on Iranian imperial ambitions ( and the fact that no one else does except Turkey which is minimal) but the Shi’a Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, through constant bloodshed, have acquired power and ascendancy over the other sects of Lebanon and are loath to see that imperiled by an injudicious adventure in Israel.
Once the most downtrodden community in Lebanon, the Hezbollah leadership – by virtue of Justice coming from the barrel of a gun – have acquired a preeminent position in Lebanon and subsequently wealth and power. They own hotels, resorts, department stores and fingers in every enterprise. Giving that up for the fantasy of supporting Hamas, which probably began the war with Israel without any notice given to Hezbollah, is hardly likely. The last war between Hezbollah and Israel, in 2006 made the Hezbollah the heroes of the Arab world, but Lebanese infrastructure was destroyed…. and in Lebanon the Hezbollah are not popular among other sects, Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Druze.
The Muslim Brotherhood is an anathema in Shi’a Iraq, as their continued support of Saddam Hussein as a symbol of Arabism. The Muslim Brotherhood is the adamant enemy of the Syrian Alawi regime from 1976 until 1982. Egypt under General Al Sisi expelled the Muslim Brotherhood from his domain when he came to power. In Fact, excepting Turkey, and Qatar ( as long as they are kept carefully monitored and controlled) the Muslim Brotherhood is not welcome anywhere in the Middle East.
The second factor which has come to my mind was brought about by the book I am reading, The Watchman Fell Asleep by Uri Ban Joseph.It details the total failure of the Israeli intelligence apparatus in the 73 war and I was struck how many factors involved seem to be present in the present war now. There was an intelligence failure. No doubt about that. Both the Israeli and American systems failed. Everyone knew that the Hamas had the rockets and were capable of firing them into Israel.But they deeply underestimated the ability to take severe punishment and keep firing. The idea that they would run out of rockets has not been accepted by many Israeli military sources. The Underground world created by HAMAS and its sophistication was known but not its extent and how the HAMAS insurgents capability to get to the top, fire rockets, and return to their underground burrows. Going on experience from the WWII German bombing survey, and from Vietnam, the air attacks will never destroy Hamas capability. The main point in the book is that the primary problem of the Israeli intelligence was the “conception,” imbedded IDF intelligence that Egypt would never attack without air superiority. The “conception” was implanted by a great deal of Israeli hubris as well…as is the present situation . As one Israeli writer dubbed it, the “dream world” of the Israelis elite opined that all was well. The analysis of the CIA failed as well. Why is a mystery to me unless the current disarray within our intelligence community chasing chimeras of “White domestic terrorism,” or perhaps more conspiratorial , the CIA knew and did not divulge to the Israelis to teach them a lesson ……and make them more amenable to the obsessive Biden quest for another Iranian Nuclear agreement. Obviously if so it got out of control.
Thirdly, despite some elements of the following, This is not a war of nationalism, economics, land etc, as so many many of the gurus that infest our media would tell you. It is a religious war…a continuation of the war launched by the Prophet Mohammed and continued by the Islamists today. The call of the HAMAS for Jihad is only one aspect of this more later……. InshAllah
Fourthly, main instigator of this war is Iran. They supplied the Hamas and have given critical support morally, spiritually, militarily, economically, and used their well funded propaganda outlets and sources in the West, especially the US, using the media such as The Washington Post, New York Times and many of the top media sources as basically propaganda conduits for Iran.