Bottom Line .We do not know. A couple of days ago I wrote that, despite my hopes, the new uprising will faiIl. gave several reasons, among which one particularly critical one is that the new revolutionaries do not have a single unifying leader. The new revolutionaries are from many disparate groups, including Baluchis in the eastern part of Iran, Arabs of Khuzistan and Persians in the cities across Iran. It is not just about the wearing a hijab but the overall suffocation of the Iranian people under draconian, non sensical “religious”: rules…….. mostly made up in the inner sanctums of the ruling ayatollahs and their politicized military backers. Runaway inflation, pervasive corruption as the mullahs siphon off the public monies into their pockets, the IRGC and Basij thugs controlling the social life of the people…all have contributed to the “new revolution.”
Will it succeed? I an still skeptical but hopeful I was wrong. One item which has boosted my optimism that it might just succeed is that Biden’s Intelligence folks think it will fail. Anytime our CIA makes a prediction there is good reason to think the opposite. I was on the Intelligence board for infamous National Intelligence Estimate of 1978 in which the opening lines were “Iran is likely to remain stable under the Shah’s leadership over the next several years … The prospects are good that Iran will have relatively clear sailing until at least the mid-1980s.” I was the army intel representative and had little to do with it as the CIA big boys run those shows. Anyway less than a year later, the Shah was out.
Our intel in Iran then was very poor for a number of reasons, and there are many books out to describe the debacle, but the point is that our intel now is even worse. I spent enough time around the intel community to be able to say we have no idea how the Iranian army will react. In the shah’s time the military leaders…with a few heroic exceptions…. were a fearful, incompetent bunch. The soldiers refused to fire on the crowds. Will they do so now? The vital question is the SS of the Iranian regime…the IRGC. Will they kill their own people? The regular army has always been suspect in the eyes of the Iranian regime. And how about the Basij…the Brown Shirts of the Iranian regime. Will they stand firm.? All questions but no answers yet.
I am reading lots of tweets with google translations from Iranian sources saying that the regime is under water, officials are moving their families to Beirut and Qatar, the oil workers are going on strike. the Iranians are bringing in Hezbollah thugs from Lebanon to fight the protestors, Army officers are making anti-regime noises…etc Believable ? yes but….!! Maybe too good to be true.
Another question! Why so little mainstream media attention? My educated guess is that the the Obama/Biden regime, which has given Iran the “most favored nation” attention supplicating them to sign a worthless Nuc deal.. there by releasing plane loads of cash and other goodies for the regime, is embarrassed…… and the state -run media has circled the wagons to protect them. Am I Mua’mara (conspiracy) minded.? A few years ago I would have said yes…. but in these days of US government crack down on John Q. Citizen dissent to Obama/Biden manifestos , these things are not only possible but probable.