What is happening in Iran?

Bottom Line .We do not know. A couple of days ago I wrote that, despite my hopes, the new uprising will faiIl. gave several reasons, among which one particularly critical one is that the new revolutionaries do not have a single unifying leader. The new revolutionaries are from many disparate groups, including Baluchis in the eastern part of Iran, Arabs of Khuzistan and Persians in the cities across Iran. It is not just about   the wearing a hijab but the overall suffocation of the Iranian people under draconian, non sensical “religious”: rules…….. mostly made up in the inner sanctums of the ruling ayatollahs and  their   politicized military backers. Runaway inflation, pervasive  corruption as the mullahs siphon off the public monies into their pockets, the IRGC and Basij thugs controlling the social life of the people…all have contributed to the “new revolution.”

Grand Ayatollah Khamenei inspecting Military cadet graduation at Tehran. Will they fire on their own people? The Biden intel community is betting they will.

Will it succeed? I an still skeptical but hopeful I was wrong. One item which has boosted my optimism that it might just succeed is that Biden’s Intelligence folks think it will fail. Anytime  our CIA  makes a prediction  there is good reason to think the opposite. I was on the Intelligence board for infamous National Intelligence Estimate  of 1978 in which the opening lines were “Iran is likely to remain stable under the Shah’s leadership over the next several years … The prospects are good that Iran will have relatively clear sailing until at least the mid-1980s.”   I was the army intel representative and had little to do with it as the CIA big boys run those shows. Anyway less than a year later, the Shah was out.

Our intel in Iran then was very  poor for a number of reasons, and there are many books out to describe the debacle,  but the point is that our intel now is even worse.  I spent enough time around the intel community to be able to say we have no idea how the Iranian army will react. In the shah’s time the military leaders…with a few heroic exceptions…. were a fearful, incompetent bunch. The soldiers refused to fire on the crowds. Will they do so now? The vital question  is the SS of the Iranian regime…the IRGC. Will they kill their own people? The regular army has always been suspect in the eyes of the Iranian regime. And how about the Basij…the Brown Shirts of the Iranian regime. Will they stand firm.? All questions but no answers yet.

I am reading lots of tweets with google translations from Iranian sources saying that the regime is under water, officials are moving their families to Beirut and  Qatar, the oil  workers are going on strike. the Iranians are bringing in Hezbollah thugs from Lebanon to fight the protestors, Army officers are making anti-regime noises…etc Believable ? yes but….!! Maybe too good to be true.

Another question! Why so little mainstream media attention? My educated guess is that the  the Obama/Biden regime, which has given Iran the “most favored nation” attention supplicating them to sign a worthless Nuc deal.. there by releasing plane loads of cash and other goodies for the regime, is embarrassed…… and the state -run media has circled the wagons to protect them.  Am I Mua’mara (conspiracy) minded.? A few years ago I would have said yes…. but in these days of  US government crack down on   John Q. Citizen  dissent to Obama/Biden manifestos , these things are not only possible but probable.

see https://www.nysun.com/article/why-biden-is-betting-irans-latest-revolution-will-fail




About Tex

Retired artillery colonel, many years in a number of positions in the Arab world. Graduate of the US Military Academy and the American University of Beirut. MA in Arab studies from the American University in Beirut along with 18 years as Middle East Seminar Director at the JFK Special Warfare Center and School, Served in Vietnam with 1st Inf Division, Assignments in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, plus service with Trucial Oman Scouts in the Persian Gulf. Traveled to every Arab country on the map including Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.
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