There are eerie similarities between the situation in Iran today and the rebellion which overthrew the shah. The most critical one is the continuing strikes of key industries in Iran. One for the telling and critical tipping points in the revolt t against the Shah was the strike of the oil workers. Iran’s life blood is oil and  with their  feeble economy it will not take much to fall into a desperate  economic situation. Also rumors continue to make the rounds that some of the Iranian officials are worried about their families and looking for safe havens. There are also hints here and there that some Iranian officials are talking about mistakes and condemning over reaction by the Basij. This reminds me of the fact that the shah in an desperate attempt to pacify the mobs put his former security chief in prison. The problem with these tepid moves to ameliorate the anger of the protestors is that history shows that once a despotic regime lifts its heel..however slightly…. off the throat of the people it loses control.

However the protestors have no leader, apparent unity, or clear cut objective. Moreover it appears that the major problem is in the Kurdish areas. The Regime  leadership can manipulate this situation into a Persian vs Kurdish conflict  to deflate the protests.

One thing for sure, if the protests fail to materialize into something  more serious, the reaction of the scared rats of the regime will seek  bloody  retribution  against those who participated.Im sure the protestors are aware of this  but not cognizant  of the mass executions and  purging of anyone associated withe Shah in the earlier rebellion. After all most of the protestors today, at the time of the rebellion against the Shah were not yet born.

It should be pointed out that the Kurdish uprising against the Islamic regime after it deposed the Shah was very bloody and thorough. They eliminated the leaders and intelligentsia of the Kurds ……and have no compunction about doing it again.

IRAN. August 27, 1979. After a short show-trial, 11 people charged as being “counterrevolutionary” were executed at Sanandaj Airport. Nine of the eleven men in this photo were Kurds. This photo won the Pulitzer Prize in 1980. The recipient was known as “anonymous” until 2006 when Jahangir RAZMI told the Wall Street Journal that he had taken it.

At some point the hope is that a military leader from the army will arrive on the scene and the protestors will coalesce   around him. Secondly the revolution against the shah turned deadly when the Homofars ( warrant officers ) of the Air Force deserted the Shah and broke into the armories obtaining weapons and handing them out to the mobs. First a dribble of soldiers deserted tom the mobs, then it became a stream, throwing away their weapons and running toward the crowds. Its there some way the protestors of d today can obtain weapons? Insofar as I know there have been no widespread defection of military personnel to the anti-regime protestors. Many of the tweets from Iran by the protestors have the tone of hope more than actual accomplishments.

But there can be little doubt that there is much concern among the ruling mullahs and their supporters. I can imagine that at the top in the air-conditioned offices of the top mullahs, IRGC, and Basij, many heated discussions are going on…to wit….from one side why are we procrastinating? And from the other…recommendations to toss out placebos to the protestors until they burn themselves out.

Do not forget the brutality of the Ayatollah regime. From a reporter there at the time of the  execution of four of the Shah’s people below.

“After that, some of the attendees went to the basement, which was also the school’s amphitheater. They watched the film of Khomeini’s return to Iran yet again. Then they set the dinner table and brought rice and chicken, and began to eat.

It was about 10.30 pm when they said they were going to take them upstairs. It was very cold and snowy that night. It was a strange situation; God sees that my body still trembles when I remember it. But I always ask myself, “If I didn’t write it, who else would have?”

After that, some of the attendees went to the basement, which was also the school’s amphitheater. They watched the film of Khomeini’s return to Iran yet again. Then they set the dinner table and brought rice and chicken, and began to eat.

It was about 10.30 pm when they said they were going to take them upstairs. It was very cold and snowy that night. It was a strange situation; God sees that my body still trembles when I remember it. But I always ask myself, “If I didn’t write it, who else would have?”

The situation of each of them was different. Naji broke down and cried. Nasiri was wounded in the neck because he had been hung up in the detention center, but the rope broke, and his voice was hard to hear, and his head and face were injured because of the fists that had hit him. He kept saying: “Ya Ali”.

Rahimi stood very strong and powerful. He said “Long live the Shah, long live Iran” several times and was shot. But Khosrodad was the bravest of all: he did not allow them to close his eyes. He said: “Because I am the senior here, I will order the shooting.” And he ordered them to shoot himself.

Some people were crying, each for his own reason. I cried too. “Stop it, it could be to your detriment,” the newspaper photographer told me. But I couldn’t believe it. Until then, I didn’t believe the Islamic Republic meant blood, murder, and crime. The Islam I knew from my father and others around me was not like this.

Their families weren’t even informed. They read the news of the death of their loved ones in the newspaper the next day, or else found out through some of members of the Etela’at team before it was published.

How many people were on the roof at the time of the execution? Are any of them prominent figures today?

About 20 people were on the roof. [Conservative politician and former head of Khomenei’s security detail] Mohsen Rafiqdoost supervised; Hamid Reza Naghashian was Mr. Khomeini’s bodyguard.

The bodies of the four initial victims of the Iranian blood purge being proudly shown in the morgue. This pic was in the newspaper which is how their families found out they were dead.

families of sTheeveral of the killed Mojahedin-e Khagh [MKO] and Fadaiyan-e Islam members were also present: tor example, the parents of Mehdi Rezaei, a member of the MKO who was executed before the revolution, and the mother of Masoumeh Shadmani, known as Kabiri: a member of the MKO who was arrested in 1974 and sentenced to life imprisonment. Several others who had been informed about it were also there.But Ayatollah Taleghani [a senior cleric and critic of the Shah who died later in 1979] refused to come despite being informed. Rezaei’s father was given a gun to shoot, but he cried and said “I cannot”. Several other family members also refused to shoot. Then four young revolutionaries took charge – but they had covered their faces. The weather was cold and snowy that night; with hats on, jackets and cloths over their faces, their faces were unrecognizable. An officer named Humafar shot at them and the bodies fell on the snow.The situation of each of them was different. Naji broke down and cried. Nasiri was wounded in the neck because he had been hung up in the detention center, but the rope broke, and his voice was hard to hear, and his head and face were injured because of the fists that had hit him. He kept saying: “Ya Ali”.Rahimi stood very strong and powerful. He said “Long live the Shah, long live Iran” several times and was shot. But Khosrodad was the bravest of all: he did not allow them to close his eyes. He said: “Because I am the senior here, I will order the shooting.” And he ordered them to shoot himself.Some people were crying, each for his own reason. I cried too. “Stop it, it could be to your detriment,” the newspaper photographer told me. But I couldn’t believe it. Until then, I didn’t believe the Islamic Republic meant blood, murder, and crime. The Islam I knew from my father and others around me was not like this.

Their families weren’t even informed. They read the news of the death of their loved ones in the newspaper the next day, or else found out through some of members of the Etela’at team before it was published.

The Shahs Security chief (of Savak) Nemaotolah Nassiri. The Shah put him in jail to placate the mobs but the mobs killed him anyway

How many people were on the roof at the time of the execution? Are any of them prominent figures today?

About 20 people were on the roof. [Conservative politician and former head of Khomenei’s security detail] Mohsen Rafiqdoost supervised; Hamid Reza Naghashian was Mr. Khomeini’s bodyguard.

The families of several of the killed Mojahedin-e Khagh [MKO] and Fadaiyan-e Islam members were also present: tor example, the parents of Mehdi Rezaei, a member of the MKO who was executed before the revolution, and the mother of Masoumeh Shadmani, known as Kabiri: a member of the MKO who was arrested in 1974 and sentenced to life imprisonment. Several others who had been informed about it were also there.

But Ayatollah Taleghani [a senior cleric and critic of the Shah who died later in 1979] refused to come despite being informed. Rezaei’s father was given a gun to shoot, but he cried and said “I cannot”. Several other family members also refused to shoot. Then four young revolutionaries took charge – but they had covered their faces. The weather was cold and snowy that night; with hats on, jackets and cloths over their faces, their faces were unrecognizable. An officer named Humafar shot at them and the bodies fell on the snow.

Lets hope the new rebellion succeeds!!