The protests and general chaos continues in Iran and there are some indications that someone or some group inside Iran is orchestrating the continuing violence. An example is the burning of the Sepal bank which handles the money for the IRGC, helping to the paralyze the Mullah economy.Families of the Regime officials are beginning to depart the country. More industries employees are striking and work is sporadic in many parts of Iran. The forty day mourning tradition of the Shi’a assures that the motives for the protests, revolution, will continues ad infinitum…..unless the regime employs all their forces in a hugely bloody conflagration. They have done done so yet. Why not? They are afraid the same thing that happened to the Shah will repeat itself..i.e. the soldiers will begin to join the revolutionaries. They are obviously not sure of their troops loyalty, especially the regular army (Artesh) which has always been suspect, hence the formation of the IRGC, and the Basij. However there is good evidence that at the Soldier level, the IRGC soldier is as poorly trained and as indifferent to his service at the average Artesh soldier. As in the Shah’s army the recruits in the Atesh and IRGC are treated poorly by their officers, and the NCO corps is mostly useless and equipment poorly maintained. Junior officers are poorly motivated and lack initiative. The senior officers are a mixed bag, selected for regime loyalty as much as competence.
Their level of military prowess has been measured too often in the West by their “show and tell” and “splash and dash” military exhibitions of missile firings and ludicrously boastful proclamations of their generals to wipe Israel off the map..etc. Since the end of the Iran-Iraq in 1988, the Iranians have not tested their military. It has atrophied a great deal and in a number of categories was not that competent in the war: For instance, Depending on using teenagers for human mine detectors to cross Iraqi barbed wire and minefields. The “elite” status of the IRGC is not really warranted, the “Quds” Special Forces wing of the IRGC is an Elite force, but generally in plotting foreign sabotage, inciting mobs, terror operations, etc. not general warfare, or even domestic regime protection.
In essence, the Iranian armed forces are a hollow shell with a shiny exterior that hides the rot inside. They lack the Islamist fervor for “death,” as so loudly proclaimed by various Islamist groups that chant that they “welcome death.” In fact, the leaders of these organizations are always carefully guarded by numerous guards and flee to bunkers when danger is near. Their followers have become more cognizant of this and the zeal has plummeted.
The families of these Iranian leaders are not feeling secure these days as the protestors go to the same schools as their children, the spoiled brats of the religious elite, military officers, and bureaucracy of the Iranian regime. Some may even be participating in the protests.
The bottom line here is that the Iranian regime is on life support and even if it survives, its power will be greatly diminished. Taking a predictive plunge I do not think the Islamist regime of Khamenei will, survive in its present form, meaning that the theocracy is dead.