A talk I gave a civic organization a few days ago.

First off would like to cover the current status of the war in Gaza based on the best and most reliable sources  I have used over the years.

The 7 oct attack by Hamas caught Israeli intelligence napping -once again- as the Egyptians did in 1973. It was a colossal intelligence failure compounded by a surprisingly slow response by the IDF. The Hamas terrorists were roaming around the Israeli villages for over 48 hours before the last terrorists were killed or ejected.  No doubt the Israelis will conduct a hard-nosed investigation when this war is over, similar to the Agranat investigation after the 1973 war- unlike Biden’s  airbrushed investigation  of our Afghanistan debacle.

OCT 7 WHY the SURPRISE?

 At this stage three problems standout. First, the Israeli intelligence apparatus was again- as in 1973- guilty of hubris -under estimating the capabilities of the Hamas as they did the Egyptians.  Secondly, depending on sophisticated gizmos and gadgets for early warning and substituting  them for human ears, eyes and brains. Thirdly the Netanyahu government did not have its eye on the ball being involved in an all- out battle against  a leftist movement in Israel similar to the “Never Trump” movement here.

What NEXT? 

At this stage, as we await to see if Israelis will carry out the promised assault on Khan Yunis, despite pressure to  desist.  As of now the war is in stagnation. Even those areas announced as IDF occupied in Gaza are still experiencing low intensity conflict as Hamas continues to make good use of an incredibly complex tunnel system and are able  to suddenly reappear in places thought to be cleared.  Israelis are resorting to using small unit raids and precision airpower to destroy even single snipers. It could take another 6 months to achieve the IDF stated goal-the destruction of Hamas infrastructure and leadership

WHY OPERATION TAKING SO LONG?

IDF strategy and tactics has been continually hamstrung by the interference of the Western international community, which is intimidated by huge domestic pro-Hamas demonstrations. The Israeli soldier has   the whole world, much of it hostile to Jews and Israel looking over his shoulder.

Overall, an unbiased observer has to give the IDF the highest marks for the way it has conducted this war.  It  is fighting in one of the most densely inhabited areas in the world, ( 26 mile long 6 mile wide with 2 mil people) in which the inhabitants are intensely hostile, noncombatants cannot be distinguished from the terrorists, and the civilians have no place to go.

 Remember Israel is fighting a three front war and being being snipped at by almost everyone.

Moreover, the hardest war to fight is in an urban area. Added to that is the peculiarities of a middle eastern city with their narrow streets, stone and cement buildings and walled residences. Psychological effect of soldiers is particularly stressful.

I observed the Jordanian army attack the PLO areas in 1970 in Amman Jordan and saw the immensity of the problem. Armor was useless and the Bedouin soldiers of the Jordan army were untrained in urban warfare. Only a massive American airlift of ammunition and hardware enabled the Jordanians to prevail.

Looking at it From the Israeli standpoint

he Israeli soldier not only has to contend with a hostile population and street-smart terrorists but with a virtue signaling international community and media scrutinizing every move he makes.  While The IDF is held to an impossibly high standard of conduct, Hamas has none.

At this stage the Israelis cannot count on much outside help, especially as our ammunition supplies, have been depleted by the Ukrainian War. ( our inadequate   industrial base cannot  replenish).

The totally incoherent policy of the Biden administration is a major problem- using sophomoric threats to undermine the Netanyahu government such as using a deliberately leaked CIA analysis claiming the unpopularity of the Netanyahu government l (polls indicate the opposite) with Schumer’s grossly inappropriate call to dump the Israeli government.

So now what?

We have a responsibility as a world power to stabilize regions that are cauldrons of religious, sectarian and ideological conflict. History tells us that even if we wish to retreat into our shell our enemies will not allow it. They will come after us. 9/11 has proven that.  Two presidents, Wilson and Roosevelt got elected on pledges to keep us out of war.  We know how that turned out.

The bottom-line up front is this. To the Israelis the war in Gaza is an existential war. To the West and the United States, it is a civilizational war. To the Palestinians it is simply another battle in a hundred years war that has been going on since 1920. Victory for the Israelis must include total destruction of Hamas infrastructure and leadership. Anything less simply invites another war in a few years.  Hamas, the Islamists,and our enemies will see it at a victory.

Geostrategic Issues

We are in the midst of a war which has revealed deep fissures culturally and ideologically not only in the world around us, but domestically as well.

Samuel Huntington in the Clash of Civilizations wrote that the wars of this era will not be between differing ideologies but different cultural civilizations. We can see that in the war between Christian Armenia and Islamist Azerbaijan, also in the war in the Ukraine in which the Western civilization of Ukraine is in cultural conflict with the historical anti-Western Russian civilization. Cultural wars terminate only when one side is obliterated or reduced to slavery. Peace consists of only truces and temporary cease fire agreements.

The enemies of Western Civilization resent its achievements and envy its power.  We are seen as the core of the Western civilization, and even if we fold our tents and retire behind our porous borders our perceived weakness only invites more attacks.  Our enemies view democracy and Western society as effete, soft, and cowardly.

Westernophobia and the  Western Useful Fools

This widespread westernophobia  is pervasive in the third world, Russia, China  and  underdeveloped regions.   Moreover, this amorphous anti-Western impulse has infiltrated our Western universities and society.  The Palestinians propagandists and their supporters in the West have adroitly combined what the Shah of Iran called the unholy alliance of the Black and the Red- the cultural Marxists and the reactionary Islamists.   We see in the news everyday,. Western governments have capitulated to Pro-Hamas demonstrators with their theme being from the “river to the sea”-an explicit demand for the extinction of Israel.

Some might say, especially academics, that if we give no cause for Middle Eastern antipathy- like abandoning Israel- our problem would disappear.   Not so. The cultural gap is immense.  Their world view radically differs from that of the Western civilization. It is not better or inferior, simply incompatible.  Many of our so- called Middle East “experts” disregard  or white wash the primary religious and ideological force in the Middle East-  which is Islamism.

ISLAM

Let me explain. Islam is a religion. Islamism is an ideology which has the imprint of fascism, Marxism, and only the external trappings of Islam.  Islamism like fascism promotes Jew hatred. Like Communism it is totalitarian.  One needs to separate Islam from Islamism, however, it is true that Islam the religion, does carry within its doctrine certain passages amenable to radicalism.   Much depends on how one interprets the Qur’an and the sayings and actions of the Prophet Mohammed.

I found much to admire in Islam such as the simplicity of the faith. The Tenacity of their faith and their acceptance of their fate in li

Some of you may recall the case of the so called the “green beret terrorist”,  Sgt Ali Mohamed at Ft Bragg in the nineties. I worked with him. He exemplified the basic world view of Islamism, that the world is divided into two spheres. i.e. the house of peace vs the house of war) We are the House of War, they are the House of Peace.  The world will never be peaceful until the House of war is absorbed by the House of peace. It is a Perpetual war with periods of truce and ceasefires.   Never eternal peace. His view of Islam is shared many Muslim fundamentalist, most believing that this Islamic domination will come about by peaceful conversion, but many believing that only violence will work.

This is the core belief of the Muslim Brotherhood, the world -wide organization that controls the Gaza strip. The point is that Ali Mohamed’s view of the world conflict is the basic, and I believe the correct assessment, of the war in Gaza.  As the Arabs often told me “It took us 200 years to get rid of the Christian crusaders and it may take us that long to get rid of the Jews.”

The two -state solution so avidly sought by the Biden administration is a deadly illusion.

BTW Ali now resides in a federal prison, convicted of taking part in the deadly bombings of the American embassies in Africa in 1998.

The Islamists do not recognize the regional borders. It is a world -wide force of a new style imperialism.  The values of our western world are incompatible with the leaders of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Hamas. The leaders of the Gaza terrorists doing the butchery of 7 OCT were well aware of what would happen to their people in the Israeli response.  They did not care. In fact, their culture, borne of centuries of despotism, invasions, ethnic wars, and foreign domination, have no compunction using captives as human bartering objects.

But their inhumanity should never be confused with a lack of intelligence and cunning.  They are calculating, very intelligent, industrious, and should never be underrated.

Their strategy was simple. Invade Israel, kill as many Jews as possible, take hostages, go underground, survive the Israeli response, and after a while the international community and its useful fools will demand a ceasefire. It has always worked and may again this time.

Palestinian Cause and Palestinians: The Huge divide

It is appropriate at this point to emphasize that while the Palestinian cause is venerated throughout the Arab world, Palestinians are not welcome anywhere. In Lebanon, when attending the university there, the Lebanese forces were battling the Palestinian Liberation Organization. While an attaché in Jordan the Jordanian Forces were engaged in a full-blown war against the PLO.  In Kuwait, the expatriate Palestinian community aided the invading Iraqi forces and were expelled after the war. In Iraq, our army civil Affairs units were setting up camps for Palestinians driven from their homes because of their support for Saddam Hussein. It is worth noting than in this Gaza war, besides the usual vocalizing, not a single Arab country has offered any military help to Hamas.

When Harry Truman recognized Israel against the advice of the DOS, DOD, and the CIA he created a moral obligation for its survival. Every administration has reaffirmed that basic obligation, some reluctantly I’m sure, but nevertheless we- throughout the world, – and especially the Middle East- are identified with the creation and survival of Israel.

In the world, rightly or wrongly, our support of Israel has become a barometer of our national will and strength, as well as our moral compass.  We cannot walk away or diminish our support without severe domestic psychological effects and a sensing of weakness by our enemies and friends alike. We suffer from that already.

The wishy-washy policy of the Obama-Biden administration toward the conflict has created confusion among our friends and derision from our enemies.

Biden amateurs and the Gaza problem

They misread not only the mood of the Israeli street but that of the Palestinians as well. The Palestinians reject living with a Jewish state – as they have the past the past 100 years- and the Israelis- or most anyway-will no longer accept a neighboring state those constitution embodies the elimination of the Jewish homeland.

IRAN

The second great threat to us is the imperialistic leadership of Iran.  Its theocratic rulers are afflicted with megalomania created by Living in a bubble of unreality.

The reality is that Iran has many vulnerabilities. Only about 50% of the people of Iran are Persian. The rest are many minorities, most of whom chaff under Iranian rule, the Turkoman, Kurds, Azeris, Arabs, Baluch,  all-at one time or other-  have rebelled against the Central Iranian government. They have also had several uprisings inspired by a youthful desire for a more tolerate, less theocratic Iranian rule. Economically they are kept afloat by oil and gas production and not much else. They can barely feed their population because their farmers have been afflicted by a decade long drought bringing on an  increasing migration to the cities. Today  most of them  live in dilapidated shantytowns.

Why the Iranian Clout? 

Despite this one is amazed at the clout they now have- not only in the Middle East- but world -wide. Obama/Biden money has helped

 So how did Iran get to this point of domination In the Middle East? First of all, they adroitly used their Shi’a heritage and identification to link their aims and objectives to the Shi’a communities in the Middle East, in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. The Shi’a have always been second class citizens in Sunni Muslim dominated Arab countries. I experienced that first hand in Lebanon and Iraq.In the eighties the Shi’a arose, and with the demise of Saddam and other authoritarian rulers in the Middle East,  taking power by force of arms with extensive Iranian assistance.

The weird fascination of the Obama /Biden administrations, with Iran, is simply inexplicable. In pursuit of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement (the nuc deal that Trump scuttled), The Obama administration paid billions in cash- we really do not know how much.  But more critical to today’s conflicts- they allowed the Iranians to believe that in exchange for a suspension of nuclear development – a mostly unenforceable agreement- they were given a free hand in their non-nuclear subversive activities throughout the world.

Culture and War

Nations fight and conduct their relations according to their culture, a culture derived from geography, history, and many often-immutable factors. The Iranians have a very distinct way of war as do all nations, including us.   One could sum up their way of war as one conducted by guile, deception and evasion.  They conquer by the word and the pen- not by the sword. Throughout history, opponents of the Persians like the Greeks, Byzantines, Arabs, British , have described  Persian national character in terms like xenophobia, vanity, feeling of superiority,  enigmatic, along with supremely patriotic, highly intelligent, intuitive, imaginative, and subtle.

Put that against the quote of Willian Burns our CIA director, who along with John Kerry conducted negotiations with the Iranians to fashion the JPCOA. In his book, Back Channel he wrote, “The JCPOA was a solid agreement in many ways better for us than the Iranians…..” In this book he effusively praises John Kerry  which at the very least puts question marks around his judgment.

Iranians are smarter than Westerns

One example of Iranian character. My wife and I while traveling in Iran came upon this village-  and all across the road were dozens of carpets. I tried to get off the road and drive on the shoulder, but I saw the villagers laughing and waving me back on the road. When I asked some old Iranian hands about this, they said this is the way Iranians make old carpets out of new carpets, which sell for huge prices in Paris and New York.

In conclusion we cannot simply morph into a giant Switzerland cozy behind two oceans, retiring to our gated communities to live in peace and comfort. Our enemies will not let us.  They believe in a world in which Peace is an aberration, war is the norm.  Peace is the period in which you prepare for the next conflict. We have to understand and prepare for that– or in the words of Richard Nixon become the “pitiful helpless giant.”